INNOVATION PERFORMANCE OF SERBIA: EVIDENCE FROM THE GLOBAL INNOVATION INDEX

Abstract

This paper examines Serbia’s innovation performance during the period 2021–2025 using the Global Innovation Index (GII) framework, with particular emphasis on the dynamics between innovation inputs and outputs and their interaction. The study applies a quantitative approach based on secondary data analysis. Empirical data are drawn from annual GII reports published by the World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO). The analysis focuses on sub-index values rather than ranking positions in order to capture changes over time and evaluate the efficiency of input-output transformation. The findings reveal a consistent positive trajectory between 2021 and 2024 across both sub-indices. However, a structural break is observed in 2025, marked by a significant decline in innovation inputs, particularly in pillars Business sophistication, Market sophistication, and Institutions. A simultaneous decrease in innovation outputs - most notably in Knowledge and technology outputs - indicates a reduced capacity to effectively convert innovation inputs into measurable outcomes. The results suggest the presence of structural imbalances within Serbia’s innovation system, primarily associated with institutional instability, market constraints, and financing limitations rather than deficiencies in human capital or research intensity. The decline in 2025 highlights the sensitivity of emerging innovation systems to fluctuations in key enabling conditions. The paper emphasizes the importance of improving institutional quality, strengthening market mechanisms, and diversifying innovation financing structures in order to enhance long-term systemic resilience and sustainable innovation growth. By providing a five-year input-output assessment in an upper-middle-income economy, this study offers empirical insight into recent innovation trends and systemic dynamics.