THE NEW GLOBAL CONTEXT OF MIGRATION: DEMOGRAPHY OF THE FUTURE AND THE VISION OF FULL EMPLOYMENT

Abstract

This study presents a detailed examination of contemporary migration trends in the Western Balkans, with particular focus on the Republic of Serbia and the Republic of North Macedonia. Its primary purpose is to analyze the demographic structure, age and gender distribution, and citizenship composition of migrants, while identifying the economic, social, institutional, and geographic factors influencing mobility in the region. The study aims to provide insights into the implications of labor migration for domestic labor markets, regional development, and the management of human capital. Employing a retrospective observational methodology, the research relies on official statistical data provided by national agencies, including the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia and the State Statistical Office of North Macedonia, covering the most recent years with available data. Descriptive statistical methods were applied to assess totals, age and gender distributions, and to compare trends between citizens returning from abroad and foreign nationals, with particular attention to working-age populations. The results reveal that young and middle-aged adults constitute the majority of migration flows in both countries, with male foreign immigrants predominating in Serbia, whereas returning citizens in North Macedonia show a more balanced gender distribution. Migration patterns are driven by limited professional opportunities, regional disparities, labor market segmentation, governance quality, social attitudes, and geographic factors, including rural depopulation and local economic structures. The study highlights the persistent risk of brain drain, particularly among skilled professionals, alongside potential benefits of human capital mobility, such as knowledge transfer and network development. Conclusions emphasize the need for holistic demographic and migration policies that integrate economic, social, and institutional considerations, ensuring both the quantity and quality of employment, promoting retention of skilled workers, and fostering equitable professional opportunities. Recommendations include the implementation of targeted strategies to mitigate adverse effects of emigration, enhancement of institutional and governance frameworks, and the strategic use of international mobility to support regional economic growth and social stability. Additional insights underline the importance of future research incorporating longitudinal and qualitative approaches to capture personal, cultural, and socio-economic motivations behind migration, which can inform evidence-based policy interventions and labor market planning. Overall, the study provides a solid foundation for proactive policymaking and long-term strategies designed to balance mobility with sustainable economic development and social cohesion across the Western Balkans.